Plastic Surgery Predicts the Future - What It Tells Us About the Economy

There are many odd economic indicators that help to predict the future of the economy. An economic indicator is some form of data or statistics that offer insights into the economy while also judging the health of the economy or showing potential future investments. Some of the odd economic indicators that have been used in the past include the Big Mac Index, the Men’s Underwear Index, and the Alligator Population Index. For those looking for a new economic indicator, plastic surgery can be included with the examples listed above.

Plastic Surgery Predicts the Future – Which Cosmetic Procedure Tells the Tale?

There are indications that plastic surgery might be experiencing a bit of a downward turn due to uncertainty about inflation and people wanting to save money by slowing down their spending. The downward turn is in contrast to the considerable number of patients who were looking to have plastic surgery after being in COVID lockdown at home.

Dr. Steven Williams, the president-elect of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons, has stated that demand for all types of cosmetic procedures is down as much as 60% when compared to the increased business seen during the days after COVID lockdowns. Since the demand covers all types of cosmetic procedures, the procedures vary from Botox and breast augmentation to rhinoplasty, a facelift and beyond.

According to Williams, the demand from the public for filler treatments is an indicator that can show the wider health of the plastic surgery industry, However, the demand for fillers has gone down and Williams has a theory about this trend. He said, “I think that in the med spa environment, most patients will do Botox no matter what. Most patients give up filler first.

When looking at the demand for fillers in his own practice, Williams estimated the requests for fillers is down by 30%-40%. One of the reasons it might be down is because it is often more expensive than Botox.

Plastic Surgery Predicts the Future – Why Fillers are an Economic Indicator

With the decrease in demand for fillers, amateur forecasters are using that as an indicator of a recission. They came to this conclusion by following the logic that, when the economy of the country tightens enough to cause a downturn, people across the country will decrease their amount of discretionary spending. The decrease in money spent on cosmetic surgery joins a decrease in sales for items such as lipstick, male underwear, and RV’s as signs of an upcoming downturn in the economy.

While amateur forecasters are more than willing to use these somewhat random data points as indicators of the health of the economy, experts say the prediction of a recession is more complicated than viewing the reduction of sales for some luxury items.

Yaniv Konchitchki is an economist at UC Berkley as well as a professional forecaster for the Federal Reserve. He told a reporter, “The problem is that [those indicators] relate recession to one or two observations. You don’t really have a strong scientific stance of statistical influence.” He went on to add that his recession forecasts are based on real-time data related to the profits of S&P 500 companies as they give a more detailed insight into the amount of consumer discretionary spending.

Plastic Surgery – Reasons for the Downward Trend

Once COVID lockdowns were lifted, plastic surgeons started to see a substantial increase in their business. The Aesthetic Society said the number of aesthetic surgical procedures increased by 54% in 2021. In addition, a 2022 survey from the American Society of Plastic Surgeons reported that more than three-quarters of the plastic surgeons in the United States said there was a greater demand for their services when compared to days before the pandemic.

Williams says the boom in plastic surgery during this time “really took most of us by surprise. It kind of became this perfect storm of factors where people said, I’m ready to do it. There’s not going to be a better time for the next few years.”

In their latest statistical report, the Aesthetic Society reported a 12% decrease in aesthetic surgical procedures last year. The tighter economy and the inflation rate have been given as reasons for the decrease.

In addition, Williams estimates that many medical practices have worked their way through their list of pending clients that can date back to the initials days after lockdowns. This means that patients who are now contacting plastic surgeons mention their financial worries and considerations and want to focus on a single procedure instead of having multiple treatments at the same time.

Willaims said, “Anyone who’s looked at the financial situation in the United States, it’s not exactly clear how big a recession we’re going to be in, or if we’re already in one, or if we’re going to be able to avoid it. But what is clear is that there’s a ton of media attention around it. And media attention…that influences discretionary purchases and plastic surgery. Aesthetic plastic surgery is definitely a discretionary purchase.”

- MA